多变量时间剩余协克立格模型理论及其在水文数据分析中的应用

本文将随机水文学和多变量地质统计学相结合，提出了多变量时间剩余协克立格模型。该模型将水文变量的周期性成分和趋势性成分视为确定性分量从原始各测站水文时间序列中剔除，剔除剩下的剩余值属于时空随机函数，从而以这种剩余值作为研究变量去刻划原水文变量的时空相关特征。该模型可用于水文变量的插补延展和短期预报，具有较高的精度。     

晋东豫西旱地农业生态系统结构优化研究

在系统辨识和明确结构优化的基本策略基础上,采用多目标线性规划（MOLP）方法,以农业生产纯收入、蛋白质产量和降水利用率最高作为目标函数,对国家"八五"攻关晋东豫西旱农试验区农业生态系统结构进行优化。研究结果表明：引种饲草作物小黑麦,大力发展畜牧业,与种植业有机结合,形成农牧系统良性循环结构,将提高旱地经济效益、社会效益和生态效益,促进农业持续发展;应扩大经济作物的种植面积,发展中药材,形成粮经饲结合型种植制度,提高种植业的效益;适当扩大苹果种植面积,农林牧综合发展。结构优化后农业年纯收入可达195.8万元;蛋白质年产量达26.2万kg;降水利用率提高到86.07％。     

Assessing the effects of marine protected area (MPA) on a reef fish assemblage in a northwestern Mediterranean marine reserve: Identifying community-based indicators

Marine protected areas (MPAs) are increasingly envisaged as a tool to manage coastal ecosystems and fisheries. Assessment of their performance with respect to management objectives is therefore important. A number of MPAs provided conservation benefits for fished species. Observed benefits do not apply to all species at all times, and responses to protection are also highly variable among fish taxa. Among the many empirical studies on marine reserves, only a few designs considered ‘before and after data’ and spatial variation. In this paper, we are interested in assessing the effect of a no-take reserve on the reef fish assemblage in a northwestern Mediterranean example. Data were obtained from a three-year survey using underwater visual censuses (UVC), before and after MPA establishment. Permutational multivariate analysis of variance (PERMANOVA) and multivariate regression trees (MRT) were used to evaluate the effects of reserve protection on the reef fish assemblage, while accounting for habitat. Modelled biological responses were abundances and diversity indices calculated at different levels of the assemblage. Significant effects were found for many of these metrics. In addition to PERMANOVA, univariate models provided more insight into the magnitude and direction of effects. The most sensitive metrics were related to large species and species targeted by fishing. These results may be used to choose the metrics that are more suitable as community-based indicators of MPA impact in the perspective of monitoring programs.     

The taxonomic status of the wild rice species Oryza ridleyi Hook. f. and O. longiglumis Jansen (Ser. Ridleyanae Sharma et Shastry) from Southeast Asia

The taxonomic status of the two species O. ridleyi and O. longiglumis in Oryza series Ridleyanae was resolved using morphological and molecular markers. Cluster analysis using a similarity matrix based on 12 qualitative characters separated the O. ridleyi from the O. longiglumis samples and the O. ridleyi samples from Papua New Guinea (PNG). O. ridleyi and O. longiglumis formed distinct groups upon cluster analysis based on 16 quantitative characters. Canonical discriminant analysis showed significant differences between the two species with anther and ligule length and spikelet and leaf dimensions as the most discriminating characters. Cluster analysis based on RAPD markers showed distinct clusters for O. longiglumis and O. ridleyi samples from different geographic origins. Hybridization studies revealed an F₁ sterility barrier in interspecific hybrids and those obtained from intraspecific crosses between O. ridleyi from Southeast Asia and PNG.     

An Assessment of the Genetic Diversity within a Collection of Wild Cranberry (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Vaccinium macrocarpon</Emphasis> Ait.) Clones with RAPD-PCR

Forty-three wild cranberry (Vaccinium macrocarpon Ait.) clones collected from four Canadian provinces and five cranberry cultivars were assessed for genetic variability by using random amplified polymorphic DNA (RAPD)-PCR. Fourteen primers generated 161 polymorphic RAPD-PCR bands. A substantial degree of genetic diversity was found among the wild cranberry collections. Cluster analysis by the unweighted pair-group method with arithmetic averages (UPGMA) separated the wild clones and three cultivars into five main clusters, and identified the two remaining cultivars as outliers. Furthermore, within four clusters, the genotypes tended to form sub-clusters that were in agreement with the principal coordinate (PCO) analysis. Geographical distribution explained 10% of total variation as revealed by analysis of molecular variance (AMOVA). The RAPD markers detected a sufficient degree of polymorphism to differentiate among cranberry clones and cultivars, making this technology valuable for germplasm management and the more efficient choice of parents in current cranberry breeding programs.     

大学生生态文明教育分层目标的构建

选取生态文明知识、生态文明态度和价值观、生态文明意识和生态文明行为4方面作为大学生生态文明教育目标,根据大学生年级差异、专业差异和个性差异等特点对统一性的大学生生态文明教育目标进行有机分解,构建针对性强、实效性高的大学生生态文明教育分层目标,以期为后续大学生生态文明教育提供借鉴.     

Fish-management relationships in Israeli commercial fish farming

To analyse the relationships among fish species performance and management procedures, a database was built up with data from 31 fish farms during the period 1976–1987 (1673 observations) and analysed through multivariate statistics (factor analysis). The data include nurseries, grow-out and operational ponds with mono- and polycultures of common carp, Cyprinus carpio, tilapia hybrid, Oreochromis niloticus × O. aureus, silver carp, Hypophthalmichthys molitrix, and mullet, Mugil cephalus. The main conclusions include the following. (1) The highest total yields and best tilapia performances were obtained in polyculture ponds where tilapia was the main species. (2) The best carp performances occurred in grow-out polyculture ponds where carp was the main species. Carp performance was improved in polycultures with mullet and silver carp, irrespective of whether tilapia were present or not. (3) Carp and tilapia yields increased as the nutritional inputs (feed pellets, sorghum pellets, manure), pond size and culture duration increased. The effect of the nutritional input was not linear, but logarithmic. (4) Growth rate of common carp was more affected by total density and stocking size than that of tilapia. Better carp and tilapia growth occurred in grow-out ponds when stocked at large sizes and cultured during short periods, mainly when both species were present. (5) Carp growth varied with the geographical region and size of fish pond, being better in smaller than in larger ponds due to reduced access to natural benthic food in deep ponds.     

Food inputs, water quality and nutrient accumulation in integrated pond systems: A multivariate approach

A participatory on-farm study was conducted to explore the effects of food input patterns on water quality and sediment nutrient accumulation in ponds, and to identify different types of integrated pond systems. Ten integrated agriculture-aquaculture (IAA) farms, in which ponds associate with fruit orchards, livestock and rice fields were monitored in the Mekong delta of Vietnam. Pond mass balances for nitrogen (N), organic carbon (OC) and phosphorus (P) were determined, and pond water quality and sediment nutrient accumulation were monitored. Data were analyzed using multivariate canonical correlation analysis, cluster analysis and discriminant analysis. The main variability in pond water quality and sediment nutrients was related with food inputs and water exchange rates. Water exchange rate, agro-ecological factors, pond physical properties and human waste input were major variables used to classify ponds. Classification was into: (1) low water exchange rate ponds in the fruit-dominated area, (2) low water exchange rate ponds in the rice-dominated area receiving homemade feed, and (3) high water exchange rate ponds in the rice-dominated areas receiving wastes. Pond water exchange rate was human-controlled and a function of food input patterns, which were determined by livelihood strategies of IAA-households. In the rice-dominated area with deep ponds, higher livestock and human wastes were found together with high water exchange rates. In these ponds, large organic matter loads reduced dissolved oxygen and increased total phosphorus concentrations in the water and increased nutrient (N, OC and P) accumulation in the sediments. In the rice-dominated area with wide ponds, higher homemade feed amounts were added to the ponds with low water exchange rate. This resulted in high phytoplankton biomass and high primary productivity. The contrary occurred in the fruit-dominated area, where fish were grown in shallow and narrow ponds, receiving more plant residue which resulted in lower phytoplankton biomass and lower sediment nutrient accumulation.     

Heritability for body weight at harvest size in the Pacific white shrimp, Penaeus (Litopenaeus) vannamei, from a multi-environment experiment using univariate and multivariate animal models

To estimate family BLUP breeding values and the heritability of body weight at harvest size (BW) in the Pacific white shrimp, Penaeus (Litopenaeus) vannamei, an experiment was conduced using information from two farm units of a Mexican hatchery and two shrimp population densities at each location. Data consisted of 12,658 shrimps that were siblings from 48 sires and 77 dams with a nested dam-sire structure. Shrimps were individually weighed at an average age of 130 days post-hatching. BW phenotypic mean (S.D.) was 18.2 (2.4) g, with values ranging from 8.4 to 30.0 g. Data were analyzed using univariate and multivariate models that considered BW within location by density pond environment as a different trait and included or not a common full-sib effect (c). The multivariate animal model included fixed effects of days from hatching and sex. For univariate models that included c effects, BW heritability (S.E.) estimates ranged from 0.24 (0.14) to 0.35 (0.18) across environments (heritability was zero in one environment). For multivariate models (excluding the environment with zero heritability) the heritabilities increased and ranged from 0.37 (0.06) to 0.45 (0.09). Standard errors of heritabilities and c effects were both drastically reduced in the multivariate analysis. Pairwise genetic correlations between environments were from 0.80 (0.08) to 0.86 (0.04). These differences may be indicative of genotype-environment interaction for BW at 130 days post-hatching. Statistical problems found to separate c from additive genetic effects both in univariate models were reduced using multivariate models. Correlation between family raw phenotypic means and family BV means from the multivariate analysis was 0.93 indicating a rather low risk of miss selecting superior families if BLUP solutions were neglected using replicated environment data. It is also concluded that use of incorrect statistical models or unreplicated data may lead to biased or inaccurate estimates of genetic parameters in shrimp breeding programs.     

多目标规划在小流域综合治理规划中的应用

小流域综合治理是山区进行水土保持,发展农业的关键,如何在小流域综合治理规划中体现小流域治理的综合效益是一个需要深入研究的问题。本文应用多目标规划方法对山西省广灵县牛口峪小流域进行综合治理规划,用纯收入、投资、土壤流失量三个指标进行优化。结果表明,到1995年规划实现后,人均收入将由现在的112.8元提高到1067.23元,土壤流失量减少80638.6吨,比规划前减少60.4％,共需治理投资681098元。规划实现后的经济效益和生态效益都将十分显著。